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Approximate Probabilistic Inference for Time-Series Data: A Robust Latent Gaussian Model with Temporal Awareness
Karlstad University, Faculty of Health, Science and Technology (starting 2013), Department of Mathematics and Computer Science (from 2013).
Karlstad University, Faculty of Health, Science and Technology (starting 2013), Department of Mathematics and Computer Science (from 2013).ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7547-8111
2025 (English)In: Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence / [ed] Ana Paula Rocha; Luc Steels and H. Jaap van den Herik, SciTePress, 2025, Vol. 2, p. 310-321Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The development of robust generative models for highly varied non-stationary time-series data is a complex and important problem. Traditional models for time-series data prediction, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), are inefficient and generalize poorly as they cannot capture complex temporal relationships. In this paper, we present a probabilistic generative model that can be trained to capture complex temporal information, and that is robust to data errors. We call it Time Deep Latent Gaussian Model (tDLGM). Its novel architecture is an extension of the popular Deep Latent Gaussian Model (DLGM). Our model is trained to minimize a novel regularized version of the free energy loss function (an upper bound for the negative log loss). Our regularizer, which accounts for data trends, facilitates robustness to data errors that arise from additive noise. Experiments conducted show that tDLGM is able to reconstruct and generate complex time-series data. Further, the prediction error does not increase in the presence of additive Gaussian noise. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
SciTePress, 2025. Vol. 2, p. 310-321
Keywords [en]
Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Approximative Inference, Deep Latent Gaussian Model (DLGM), Time-Series Data, Variational Recurrent Neural Network (VRNN), Generative AI.
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Computer Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-104665DOI: 10.5220/0013154800003890Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105001721886ISBN: 978-989-758-737-5 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kau-104665DiVA, id: diva2:1963992
Conference
17th International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence, Porto, Portugal, February 23-25, 2025.
Available from: 2025-06-04 Created: 2025-06-04 Last updated: 2026-02-12Bibliographically approved

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Ramaswamy, Arunselvan

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