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Reevaluating the Influence of Leaders Under Proportional Representation: Quantitative Analysis of Text in an Electoral Experiment
Karlstad University, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences (starting 2013), Department of Political, Historical, Religious and Cultural Studies (from 2013).ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0820-8626
Lund University.
2021 (English)In: Frontiers in Psychology, E-ISSN 1664-1078, Vol. 12, p. 1-8, article id 604135Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We propose that leaders play a more important role in voters’ party sympathy in proportional representation systems (PR) than previous research has suggested. Voters, from the 2018 Swedish General Election, were in an experiment asked to describe leaders and parties with three indicative keywords. Statistical models were conducted on these text data to predict their vote choice. The results show that despite that the voters vote for a party, the descriptions of leaders predicted vote choice to a similar extent as descriptions of parties. However, the order of the questions mattered, so that the first questions were more predictive than the second question. These analyses indicate that voters tend to conflate characteristics of leaders with their parties during election campaigns, and that leaders are a more important aspect of voting under PR than previous literature has suggested. Overall, this suggests that statistical analysis of words sheds new light of underlying sympathies related to voting.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Frontiers Media S.A., 2021. Vol. 12, p. 1-8, article id 604135
Keywords [en]
leaders, parties, voting, primacy, proportional representation, statistical semantics
National Category
Psychology
Research subject
Political Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-83997DOI: 10.3389/fpsyg.2021.604135ISI: 000654007500001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-8510704285OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kau-83997DiVA, id: diva2:1554166
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2017-02941Available from: 2021-05-12 Created: 2021-05-12 Last updated: 2026-02-12Bibliographically approved

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Fredén, Annika

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