This study investigates conservation establishment and management in the context of Sweden's 30 national parks by conceptualising natural disturbances as focus events for conservation opportunities. Since positive effects on the environment manifest a long time after a natural disturbance, it may take time before society sees a need to conserve the natural area. To conceptualise such delayed responses to a focus event, the concept of a 'delayed window' is introduced. An analysis of Park Establishment Proposals from the Swedish Parliament for establishing and extending Sweden's national parks was conducted by sending a survey to county representatives for each national park (response rate 19/30). The results show that historic natural disturbances were mentioned as a motivating factor for establishing many of Sweden's 30 national parks (37%, i.e. 11 parks). The result suggests that the delayed window opens when biodiversity and Cultural Ecosystem Services (CES) values of historic disturbance(s) become visible. The time span for motivating values is calculated for biodiversity values (18-829 years) and CES values (5-829 years). However, surveyed representatives responded that future disturbances may not be desired or only desired if controlled or limited, highlighting a paradox in terms of the perceived value of past and future disturbances.

Due to a tsunami being a rapid event (minutes or hours), it is necessary to have disaster risk reduction measures in place well in advance. TEWS is a warning system for reducing the consequences of a tsunami. A successful TEWS requires that i) people are aware of the risk, ii) people are prepared to evacuate and iii) the TEWS is working properly. This study aims to develop a framework with key quality indicators for technical, social, and governance maintenance of a TEWS, emphasizing the chain of activities from tsunami detection to evacuation. The framework is extended to novel indicators involving memory keeping and evacuation signage. The TEWS etsablished in Patong, following the Indian Ocean tsunami disaster 2004, is used as a pilot case study to test the framework related to technical and social maintenance by conducting a retrospective long-term analysis years 2005-2022. Data is collected from research and news articles 2005-2022, as well as field observations of Patong in 2022. The result shows that during these years there have been several events and actions that highlight both problems and positive developments related to technical and social maintenance of the TEWS. Because tsunamis are fast occurrences, dependable TEWS are vital.

In the aftermath of natural hazards, opportunities often arise for society to make changes that prevent future losses. These changes can also have environmental impacts, increase preparedness, and contribute to sustainable development. Due to the loss of biodiversity and land degradation, there is an urgent need for actions promoting positive environmental changes. Reversing the trend of land degradation and biodiversity loss is motivated by various reasons, such as preserving ecosystem functions and services that offer protection against natural hazards and reducing drivers of climate change. However, due to land degradation, loss of ecosystems, and human settlements in hazard-prone areas, it is also necessary to take actions that reduce the risk of tsunamis by improving preparedness. Improved preparedness from a people-centered perspective is a crucial aspect of sustainable development.

The four papers that make up this thesis present and apply two new frameworks— one to assess the environmental effect of human-made societal changes, and one to evaluate the maintenance of a TEWS (Tsunami Early Warning System) over time. The two frameworks capture two aspects of change after a natural hazard: i) environmental impacts and ii) Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). The thesis focuses particularly on time, a common aspect in both frameworks.

The results indicate that changes triggered by natural hazards have a dual nature in that their impact on the environment can be both positive and negative. The thesis also provides evidence that past natural hazards can create a delayed window, which can be used as an argument for nature conservation during the establishment of national parks.

The framework for evaluating the maintenance of a TEWS shows how difficult it is to operate all parts of the warning chain over time, from tsunami detection to evacuation. If parts of the chain are not maintained, the warning system may not be reliable.

Natural hazards can present opportunities for societal change. This thesis analyzes two types of changes: i) those with environmental impact and ii) those aimed at improving tsunami preparedness. It addresses a crucial gap in post-disaster literature by focusing on the environmental impacts of changes. In light of land exploitation and loss of biodiversity, it is critical to make changes that reverse these trends and support sustainable development. Unfortunately, not all natural hazards can be prevented. Tsunamis can severely threaten coastal communities, requiring preparedness and evacuation. A people-centered approach to preparedness is also an essential aspect of sustainable development.

The thesis includes four papers that present and apply two new frameworks—one to assess the environmental impact of societal changes and another to evaluate the maintenance of Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). The results reveal that changes, even if well-intentioned, made after natural hazards can have both positive and negative impacts on the environment. The TEWS maintenance framework also highlights the ongoing challenges in maintaining all warning system components.

The importance of natural disturbances for biodiversity is well-documented in the disturbance ecology literature. Natural disturbances such as fire, wind, and flooding strongly influence ecosystems by creating short and long-term ecological processes. Conservation management of protected areas should consider the importance of natural disturbances since natural shifts in ecosystems are, in a long-term perspective, necessary to maintain high biodiversity. The purpose of this study is to explore how and if natural disturbances are incorporated in the management of Swedish national parks and to identify possible examples of barriers for this incorporation. The design of the study is a multiple comparative case study based on a document study and completed with qualitative interviews. The cases consist of propositions and management plans for 15 Swedish national parks established between 1962 and 2018. The document analysis generated four main categories: historic/future and positive/negative perceptions of natural disturbances. The results indicate that there are positive perceptions concerning the inclusion of disturbance ecology in the management of national parks. However, there are also obstacles and challenges around natural disturbances within Swedish national parks. These obstacles are, in some cases, explained by practical implications such as the closeness to surrounding societies and in others explained by paradoxes such as visitors’ perceptions of national parks and the wilderness. 

This paper presents case studies where disasters provided a window of opportunity for change that included social action with (potentially) positive effects on the environment. The research literature was screened for empirical cases in support of societal changes with a focus on environmental issues, and a more in-depth case study of the extensive tree felling after the storm Gudrun in Sweden 2005 was also conducted. The case study is explored through available research as well as “grey” literature to identify societal actions taken after the storm that had – or not – an effect on environmental conditions. With the help of the framework presented by Birkmann et al. (2010), the study aims to characterise the nature of these anthropic changes. The framework was modified to focus specifically on societal actions implemented because of an “open window”, and the environmental effects of the actions. This enabled identifying changes with a positive/negative and intended/unintended effect on the environment, as well as determining if a change was based on formal or informal decisions. Several cases identified in the literature provide empirical support for the theory that disasters can generate a window of opportunity for positive environmental change. However, open windows are not always exploited, as is apparent in the case of the storm Gudrun.