The Baltic sea has always been an important transit hub for neighboring countries and the sea have made ​​it possible for the countries to trade with each other and thus create an international trade among themselves to each other. During 1700-1800's, the production took off and because of the mercantilism international trade developed. To establish their exchange rate, many countries have followed different standards, such as the gold standard where the currency's value was determined from the value of the corresponding quantity of gold which implies that the exchange rates were fixed. Based on the gold standard different theories was developed, such as the law of one price and purchasing power parity with the principles that a single currency will have the same purchasing power in other countries, which implies that a commodity should be bought for the same amount of currency, whether it is domestic or foreign. These theories have been studied several times, both for the short and long term, with the few countries to a greater number.

In order to test this, two econometric tests of the variables were made​​, stationarity test and cointegration test. The stationarity test showed that all variables except the time series that was used to test relative PPP suffered from non-stationarity and therefore needed to be differentiated to be used to test the PPP. The cointegration test showed that no one of the time series suffered of cointegration and therefore further correction models was not needed to be done.

The results from the econometric estimates showed that absolute and relative PPP could not be confirmed, nor denied, since no significant coefficients were identified. In the testing of real exchange rate for relative PPP significant time series were given but not in accordance with the nullhypothesis and therefore the null hypothesis is rejected that the relative PPP holds. From the results it is concluded that the PPP cannot be confirmed without that further studies must be done.

The stockholm county proposed legislation in 2010 on the use of studded tires in the city. The aim of the policy was to reduce the use of studded tires by 50 percent. The research question investigates the authenticity of the policy where it was hypothesized that the net social benefits for the imposition of this charge was less than or equal to zero. Emperical literatures were chosen systematically and with the help of theories on welfare economics, a meta analysis was employed quantifying cost and benefits of all outcomes. The findings shows that the NSB is less than zero meaning that it was a wise decision to reject the proposal.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the real aggregated consumption and empirically determine its exogenous variables. A multiplicative analysis is done in the context of government stabilization policy to find out how policymakers can execute a stimulus package that will bring the best multiplicative effect to the economy The conclusion of the study is that real income, net financial assets and real-estate price index are all statistically significant. An effective expansive fiscal policy is a public-financed investment in the private sector. Coordination is going to be crucial when stimulus package is developed due to the fact that leakage in the form of imports will prevent the expected multiplicative effect.

Title: Which bank do you choose? – A ratio analysis of the four major banks in Sweden 

Background and problem: In 2008 the world was hit by an economic crisis. The crisis 

has affected the major Swedish banks, mainly through increased credit losses. The 

increase in credit losses incurred due to various factors but mainly due to banks' 

exposures in the Baltic’s. The study should be considered whether any bank fared better 

than the others, but even if some deterioration due to the economic crisis. This should be 

investigated by using various financial ratios selected for this study. 

Purpose: The aim of this study is to compare the four main banks in Sweden, 

Handelsbanken, Nordea, SEB and Swedbank, based on some selected indicators. We also 

want to study how they influenced by the current economic crisis by studying a five-year 

period between 2004 and 2008. 

Methodology: For the collection of information, we mainly rely on banks' annual 

reports, literature in finance and business valuation, and external information.  

By studying the ratios for the years concerned, we shall compare the banks with each 

other and study the extent of the crisis. 

Results and conclusions: The results of the study's indicators show deterioration in 

values for all of the banks in 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. The reason for these 

declines is based in the current economic crisis. The most obvious change that is visible is 

the increased credit losses that affect net income, which in turn affect many of the 

selected ratios. The key figure shows the most visible changes is the credit loss rate, return 

on equity and earnings per share. Furthermore, the economies of the banks are expected 

to decrease further in 2009. 

Proposal for further study: Our proposal for a further study is to follow the banks of 

the current crisis and to study further about the indicators to get a deeper understanding 

of what influenced the banks. A further proposal is to study how the banks are recovering 

after the crisis during 2008. 

This paper examines the oil price-macro economy relationship by means of analyzing the impact ofoil price on Industrial production, real effective exchange rate, long term interest rate and inflation rate for a sample of ten OECD countries using quarterly data for the period 1970q1-2011q1.The impact of oil price shock on industrial production is negative and occurs with a lag of one year. However, the impact has weakened considerably compared to the 1970s. The impact on real effective exchange rate is negative/positive for a net importer/exporter, and the magnitude of the shock depends on the county´s share of net import/export of total world demand/supply. Interest rates are affected negatively, through increase in inflation rates following the oil price shock. The effect tends to die out after 5-8 quarters following the shock for most of the variables and countries. This paper also applies alternative methods to test for unit root and cointegration, which takes into account for structural breaks in the data. The weakness of Phillips-Peron test is clearly demonstrated in the case of inflation rates and interest rates, where the test falsely considered the series to be non-stationary when they in fact are stationary around a structural break. There is also strong evidence of cointegration between oil price and inflation rates and between oil price and interest rates, especially when taking account for structural breaks.

In 2001, William Easterly published the book “The Elusive Quest for Growth”, in which he criticizes the inefficiency of aid to developing countries. He addresses various “panaceas” that researchers in development economics have claimed will solve the problem of lack of growth in poor countries. Easterly tests the correlation between aid, investments, and growth within the framework of the theory of the financial gap in the book as well as in a related article published before the book (Easterly 1997). This is to specifically test how effectively aid affects investments, which in turn affects growth. This study is inspired by the quantitative study that Easterly performed to see if the results are different around 20 years later.

The purpose of this study is therefore to test whether the relationship between aid, investments, and growth within the framework of the financial gap theory holds true in practice for aid allocation. This is done by using secondary data on aid, investments, and growth for 88 low- and middle-income countries receiving aid. The result of the study, much like Easterly's (2001) study, is that there is no evidence to support the idea that the financial gap theory aligns with reality. Therefore, the conclusion of the study is that within the framework of the theory, no positive changes regarding aid allocation have occurred in the past 20 years.

The Swine flu (H1N1) erupted in 2009 and wasquickly spread over the world and developed into a pandemic, with a great threat against people’s health. It was soon discovered that the H1N1–virus had a different character than the seasonal flu, since it especially affected younger individuals and the consequences from the disease were expected to be more severe. In Sweden it was decided to provide a free of charge vaccination against the H1N1-virus, and the Swedish vaccination ratiobecome relatively high compared to other countries. This thesis studies what factors affected the Swedish population´s decision to take the flu shot against the H1N1-virus in 2009.  This is done by a statistical study with a logistic regression analysis, which is conducted on secondary data. The results show that the probability of vaccination against H1N1 increases if the individual is over 60 years, and increases with growing income. The results also show that women have a higher vaccination propensity than men. In contrast, there’s no association between vaccination against H1N1 and the level of health or education level. As the results were not entirely consistent in comparison with theories and previous studies, it can be concluded that it is difficult to determine how different factors actually affected the individuals’ vaccination decision against H1N1. Possibly,it depends on the specific and extreme circumstances with regard to H1N1. Therefore, it may be difficult to predict how individuals will behave in the case of future pandemics.

This study investigates whether or not the scale bias found in contingent valuation (CVM) studies on mortality risk reductions is a result of cognitive constraints among respondents. Scale bias refers to insensitivity and non-near-proportionality of the respondents’ willingness to pay (WTP) to the size of the risk reduction. Two hundred Swedish students participated in an experiment in which their cognitive ability was tested before they took part in a CVM-study asking them about their WTP to reduce bus-mortality risk. The results imply that WTP answers from respondents with a higher cognitive ability are less flawed by scale bias.

This study examines the effect on respondents' willingness to pay to reduce mortality risk by the order of the questions in a stated preference study. Using answers from an experiment conducted on a Swedish sample where respondents' cognitive ability was measured and where they participated in a contingent valuation survey, it was found that scale sensitivity is strongest when respondents are asked about a smaller risk reduction first ('bottom-up' approach). This contradicts some previous evidence in the literature. It was also found that the respondents' cognitive ability is more important for showing scale sensitivity when respondents are asked about a larger risk reduction first ('top-down' approach), also reinforcing the result that a 'bottom-up' approach is more consistent with answers in line with theoretical predictions for a larger proportion of respondents.

The purpose of this paper is to examine large Swedish Private Equity firm’s investment behavior towards their target companies. Do Private Equity companies make long-term investments in their target companies or do they intend to save cost at the expense of staff to generate quick profits. The study examines the majority stakes of the transactions made by Swedish Private Equity companies in the period of 1996-2016. By examining variables such as the years before the exit, type of exit, the percentage of Quick flip transactions and if the Private Equity companies in general transfer majority shares in purchases and sales. The study is supplemented with two samples that investigate how the Private Equity companies acted as owners in target companies. This is done by examining the change of different key ratios over time, which is put in perspective by examining public companies. The study shows that, on average private equity companies tend to have a stronger development than the public companies. On the other hand, the study has problems with limited sampling, which makes it difficult to generalize the results from the study. However, the essay show tendencies that the results complementing the key ratios with a confidence interval test. The Private Equity companies show a more stable change over time than the public companies which also could been generated through the small sample size. Even though the conclusion of the paper is that Private Equity companies act as intermediaries that generate benefits to the market by increasing productivity in general. However, discussions about the definition of a short-term behavior are also included. The conclusion is, instead of focusing on time, the focus should be the value creation of the target companies when making assumptions on short-term behavior of Private equity companie

We test for gender, class, and ethnic discrimination in the Norwegian rental housing market by using fake application letters. Females, individuals with high job status, and ethnic Norwegians are more likely to receive positive responses. For example, being an Arabic man and working in a warehouse is associated with a 25 percentage point lower probability of receiving a positive response when showing interest in an apartment, as compared to an ethnically Norwegian female economist. We conclude that gender, class, and ethnic discrimination do exist in the Norwegian housing market, and ethnic discrimination seems to be the most prevalent form of discrimination.

Sustainability has become a more and more recognized concept, today all the major corporations communicate that they are trying to contribute to a better and more sustainable world. An important term when it comes to sustainability is ESG which stands for Environmental, Social and Governance. ESG originates from CSR which stands for Corporate Social responsibility.This study aims to determine if ESG-rating have a significant impact on the valuation of a company, this study also aims to determine if the impact is positive or negative. The ESG-rating will be used as compounded variable and as variables divided into Environmental, Social and governance. This study consists of 44 companies listed on OMX Stockholm Large Cap between 2004-2019. In order to measure valuation, different key-ratios will be used, the key-ratios measure the market cap relative to different measures of assets and earnings.The result from this study shows that the impact ESG has on valuation varies depending on which key-ratios that are used in order to measure valuation. ESG does not have a significant impact on all the key-ratios. This study concluded that a high ESG-rating tend to increase valuation, that was also the case for Social and Governance. While high rating for environmental tend to decrease the valuation where the regression shows that ESG has a significant effect on the valuation.

In the late 1970: s more refugees began to apply for citizenship in Sweden and a demand for a new system to handle and integrate the refugees appeared. Since 1985 the Swedish refugee reception are based on agreements and cooperation between Migrationsverket and individual municipalities. The state has the overall economic responsibility for the refugee reception, while the municipalities organize the reception and public service for the refugees. However according to a list from Migrationsverket the refugee reception in Sweden is irregularly distributed over the country - some municipalities do not accept any refugees at all.

The aim of this essay is to examine which factors that influence the municipalities’ willingness to accept refugees. The question the essay intends to answer is:

• How does the variables average income, unemployment, age distribution, housing shortage, political majority, the number of seats the political party Sverigedemokraterna holds in the municipal council and the proportion of former foreign citizens, influences the different municipalities' willingness to accept refugees?

With help of statistic analysis following results emerged:

• The proportion of foreign citizens that already live in a municipality have a considerable impact on the proportion of received refugees. Videlicet if the proportion of former foreign citizens is large already, also the refugee reception is large.

• The average income interacts negatively with the proportion refugees that are accepted in a municipality.

• Non-Socialist majority in a municipality have a negative effect on the refugee reception. However, one can not say that a socialist majority or how many seats the political party Sverigedemokraterna holds in the municipal council have any impact on the refugee reception.

• Increased unemployment in a municipality decreases the refugee reception.

• A shortage of housing has a small negative impact on the reception.

Det här är en kokbok för förändringsledare. Du kan använda denna bok om du ska leda  utvecklingsaktiviteter och letar efter bra och beprövade metoder för att leda grupper  och processer. Vi beskriver metoderna som vi har använt inom vårt projekt SMICE, i  vilket sammanhang metoderna använts och när de olika metoderna fungerat bra. Vår förhoppning med att nedteckna dessa metoder är att du ska inspireras och vågar  prova något nytt för att skapa nytta. Vi tror att ett detaljerat sätt att dokumentera  metoderna gör dem mer användbara för dig men också för oss själva.   Metoderna är graderade efter vilket behov av förkunskap och förberedelser du behöver,  från det enklaste, där du kan öppna kokboken och använda metoden på en gång, till  metoder som kräver utbildning eller specialistkompetens innan du sätter igång. Boken är indelad i fyra huvuddelar; Starta, Forma, Utveckla och förankra och Bygga vidare. Till dessa delar har vi identifierat metodstöd som kan användas vid en rad olika tillfällen;  vid idégenerering, vid idéutveckling, vid affärsutveckling, för att inspirera, för att skapa  samsyn och samverkan och för att mobilisera större grupper av människor och  organisationer. Något för alla, alltså. Avslutningsvis finner du tips och stöd för att  driva dessa utvecklingsprocesser på distans med digitala verktyg i digitala möten.  Ska vi sammanfatta någon lärdom av detta arbete så blir det våra nycklar som presenteras på nästa sida. Du kan se dessa nycklar som våra bästa råd för att du ska lyckas med ditt  arbete med att leda processer och att ordna möten. Lycka till! Metoderna har testats och utvecklats inom SMICE - Samskapande Mittnordisk  Innovationsarena för Cirkulär Ekonomi, ett projekt inom Interreg som pågått  2017-2020. 

Alcohol is a daily part of the Swedish society today. This consumption is usually not a problem, but when the consumption transforms from a healthy dosage to a hazardous one, problem appears for both the individual affected and the society as a whole. This is a study that tries to estimate the economic costs of alcohol abuse within the municipality of Hammarö.The results shows that the total socio-economic costs of alcoholic use and abuse rises to 29 434 297 SEK for the year 2013. The largest bearer of the costs is the state with 15 967 819 SEK. The second largest bearer is the municipality of Hammarö with 10 230 270 SEK. Next comes the costs that affects the private sector of the society with a total of 2 837 355 SEK. The county of Värmland then follows with 1 868 182 SEK for the year of 2013.

Studien jämför priselasticitet, korspriselasticitet och inkomstelasticitet för sex bestämda livsmedel under tidsperioden 2019 till 2023. Jämförelsen sker mellan dessa livsmedlens ekologiska versioner och dess konventionella motsvarigheter. Analysen genomförs med hjälp av två regressionsmodeller för respektive livsmedel. Dessa är olika då den första mäter ekologisk konsumtion och den andra konventionell konsumtion. Regressionsmodellerna testas därefter för multikollinearitet, heteroskedasticitet och autokorrelation för att säkerställa pålitliga resultat. Ett flertal tidigare studier har fokuserat på konsumentbeteendet vad gällerkonsumtion av ekologiska livsmedel. En av de mest förekommande slutsatserna är att det finns en koppling mellan ekologisk konsumtion och miljömedvetenhet. En annan är att priset är ett hinder för konsumenten som vill köpa det ekologiska alternativet. Resultaten i vår studie skiljer sig bland de analyserade livsmedlen och deras elasticitetsmått. Vi hittar att ekologiska varor är mer priskänsliga än konventionella i de modeller som är signifikanta.

Discussions are ongoing as to whether actively managed funds succeed in generating a better return than the market. One argument for investing in an actively managed fund is that the fund manager actively trades securities in order to achieve a high return. These funds often have a higher fee, which is used as a counter-argument to invest in this type of fund. Critics believe that an index fund provides investors with a higher benefit because they have lower fees and that active trading does not lead to greater returns. 

Many studies have been done on the subject and the general perception is that actively managed funds can provide better returns than indices over time. Few studies can, however, confirm that this is the fund manager's achievement.

Fund performance is measured according to performance measures such as Jensen's Alpha, Sharpe ratio and Treynor ratio. The conclusion of the study is similar to the majority of studies. It is difficult to confirm the hypothesis that it is the fund manager's skill that is the basis for a good fund performance. Most of a fund's performance probably depends on macroeconomic factors and stock market psychology.

M&A is a strategy with a process that greatly revolves around achieving an approved merger, and subsequently being ready to act upon an approval. The strategy’s focuses are on the preparation and the analysis of the merger. A firm that is consistently up-to-date on the information available and on the status of the market, can prosper when opportunities reveal themselves. This paper studies business strategies from the point of view of what might bring growth to firms, based on theory and empirical evidence. Moreover, a case study is used of the firm Smile Tandvård, who actively uses M&A. The study is consisting of a research of the theoretical background, to enable links from several of these theories into the case study, as well as into the analysis. Additionally, was an interview conducted with the accounting manager of Smile Tandvård to get a clear insightinto the firm’s processes. The qualitative part showed the theories, the empirical evidence and the case study aligning in their characteristics, where I could pinpoint certain aspects of Smile Tandvård to the choices a firm has on a market, according to the theories. Moreover, showed the research there being plentiful ways in which you could examine the success of a merger or an acquisition. The direct result or direct returns not being the sole aim when deciding on M&A, and there were competitive advantages to gain. The quantitative test showed there being a correlation between business cycles and the amount of mergers and acquisitions.

In rifle shooting, suppressing unwanted thoughts can backfire in one's performance, causing athletes to behave contrary to their desired intention and further deteriorate their performance.PurposeThis study examined how priming attentional and negative cues affected participants' shooting performances toward ironic error targets under cognitive load conditions in Stroop task across two experiments.MethodsSemi-elite biathletes (Experiment 1, n = 10; Experiment 2, n = 9) participated in the study. The study used a within-subject quasi-experimental design, particularly a one-way repeated measures multivariate analysis of variance and a 2 x 2 fully repeated measures analysis of variance, to determine the participants' hit rates and shooting response times (RTs). In both experiments, the participants completed the reverse-Stroop-based target shooting performance under low- and high-cognitive load conditions while receiving frequent priming attentional and negative cues.ResultsThe findings from Experiment 1 suggest that regulating repetitive priming attentional thoughts is efficacious in mitigating the likelihood of ironic performance errors and interference effects. The results of Experiment 2 show that repetitive priming negative cues resulted in negligible ironic error hit rates and slower RTs in target hits under high-cognitive load conditions. The Bayesian analyses provided evidence supporting the null hypotheses.ConclusionTrying to control repetitive priming attentional and negative thoughts reduces ironic performance errors to a similar degree under cognitive load conditions among biathletes, regardless of interference effects. Further research is needed to determine the effectiveness of suppressing task-relevant negative instructions in reducing the likelihood of ironic performance errors under pressure.

This paper is in large parts an update to a paper by Bekaert and Wang from 2010 called Inflation risk and the inflation risk premium. Its purpose is to find insights into the inflation hedging properties of the major asset classes. The analysis includes stocks, bonds, treasury bills, foreign bonds, real estate, gold, and gold futures for 43 countries and covers investment horizons up to five years. For developed countries it is found that gold, gold futures and bonds are the besthedge against inflation, both in the short and long run. Treasury bills have a relatively modest performance in the short term but improve with horizons to a great hedge. For emerging countries all asset classes provide a decent hedge, with a slight favor for treasury bills and a slightdisadvantage for real estate in the short and long run. All asset classes are poor hedges to unexpected inflation with an exception for real estate in longer investment horizons. The best hedge against unexpected inflation shocks is inflation-linked bonds.

Den här boken ger en pedagogisk och detaljerad genomgång av den mikroekonomi som varit nationalekonomins kärna under snart 100 år: utbud och efterfrågan, nyttoteori och vinstmaximering. Men författarna sätter också in teorin i ett större sammanhang, där institutioner, beteendeekonomi och politik beaktas och analyseras. Målet är att skapa förståelse för hur marknadsekonomin fungerar, men även att ge läsaren verktyg för att analysera statens roll i samhället och vilka institutioner som krävs för att en fungerande marknadsekonomi ska uppstå. Denna femte upplaga har reviderats och uppdaterats genomgående, bland annat med nya avsnitt om plattformsföretag och konkurrens på internet. Dessutom har många övningar med lösningar lagts till och gjorts om.

The essay aims to examine the demand for Fairtrade coffee and the factors influencing it. It also discusses how fair Fairtrade really is and whether producers in developing countries are positively or negatively affected by consumption of Fairtrade products in the west.    

In order to investigate the demand, a willingness-to-pay study was implemented on students at Karlstad University. The results from the study indicate that the demand for Fairtrade coffee is relatively high among the students, which is consistent with previous reports which have shown that the demand for Fairtrade coffee is increasing. Regarding factors affecting the willingness to pay, sex and income have proved themselves important. Age, however, does not seem to be an essential factor. 

In order to examine how fair Fairtrade really is, a literature based study concerning Fairtrade’s benefits and disadvantages was conducted. Some researches argue that Fairtrade is affecting farmers and workers in developing countries positively while others argue that Fairtrade does not fulfill its purpose and in many cases has a negative impact.   

The study aims to examine how Sweden’s choice not to adopt the euro has affected the economic growth of the country. To answer the purpose of the study, the synthetic control method has been used. The method is based on a comparison between Sweden and a synthetic control group that corresponds to Swedish economic growth if the country had chosen to be part of the eurozone. The synthetic control group is constructed from a weighted average of the first 12 countries in the euro area.

Previous research on the effects on economic activity largely agrees that Sweden has had a stronger economic growth and increased economic activity due to the decision, and that entry into the euro area would mean an economic disadvantage for the country. However, the results from this study do not support previous studies, but instead show that Sweden’s economic growth for most of the period has been weaker than for its synthetic counterpart.

In 1994 the EU directive of packaging waste was adopted. The result was that all EU member states developed different systems to manage packaging waste and recycling. This paper examines the various systems and the factors that affect the level of recycling. This is done by a cross-sectional study between countries. The results of my study suggest that take-back system generates less recycling than other systems, the mandatory deposit system can affect the recycling in a positive way. The recycling might be higher in a full cost system where the producers account for 100 percent of the funding. High national targets may provide higher recycling. Other factors such as high GDP per capita, older systems and high population density seems to have a positive effect on the recycling of glass, but no significant effect on the recycling of plastics. A positive correlation between fees and recycling were found, but the results are not completely reliable because of the data used for fees is very uncertain. I suspect that there are other variables not investigated that influence recycling. Because of that it is difficult to establish a general model that explains the level of recycling in a country. This makes it difficult for an authority to decide what instruments to use to increase recycling. 

In this paper the phenomenon of local currencies is examined, with the starting point of seeking to answer the question of whether Norrköping would benefit from introducing their own local currency. This is on the basis of a motion to City Council of Norrköping with the proposal that the municipality should investigate the feasibility of introducing its own currency. Why do local currencies exist, and under which conditions are there economic reasons for introducing such a currency? Can a local currency have positive effects on employment or protect and strengthen the local economy?

This paper tried to answer this on the basis of the existing research on local currencies, currency areas and monetary policy. Various theories and historical and contemporary cases of local currencies are discussed. This gives a picture of the economic motives behind local currencies and the prospects for introducing such in Norrköping , although based on what we know today it is not possible to draw any definitive conclusions.

During a longer period of time the interests has been low, and is expected to remain low for some time. Life-insurance companies offer different types of life-insurances for households, insurances that helps the households to even its lifeconsumption. The insurancepremiums that the life-insurance companies receives is placed in different financial assets, and is therefore exposed to financial risks. A big part of the life-insurance companies investment is placed in bonds, and a lower interest means that the return on bonds decrease. Lower returns on bonds could cause the the life-insurance companies financial strength to worsen. The lower return on bonds could also increase the life-insurance companies will to allocate their investments to more risks in search for higher returns. The aim of this essay is to investigate whether the solvency of life-insurance companies is affected by the interest, and if the interest corresponds to how life-insurance companies allocate their investments regarding risk.

To fulfill the aim of the essay, regressionanalysis has been performed. The result from the regressionanalysis with solvency as dependent variable and interest as independent variable shows that the solvency of life-insurance companies is not affected during the observed period of time. Results from regressionanalysis with percentage of investments placed in bonds as dependent variable and interest as independent variable shows that the percentage of bonds generally shrinks when the rent decreases, and life-insurance companies allocate therefore probably favouring assets of higher risk. However results concerning risk exposure for different life-insurance companies varies, some life-insurance companies increase exposure against risk, while some decrease.

The purpose of this study is to describe and evaluate methods and models which are empirically applicable in order to estimate flows of interaction between sectors and between nodes. This interaction manifests itself in the form of flows of com-modities and services between the different sectors of the economy, and between spatially dis-persed nodes of supply and demand. After an introductory overview of vari-ous regio-nal and interregional interaction models, the main ideas of the ERG (Estimation of Intraregional and Interregional Goods Flows) approach are de-scribed. A specific purpose of the ERG project was to investigate to what extent it is possible to "feed" the models by using statistics published periodically. Depending on different kinds of commodity characteristics, mod-els of generation and distri-bu-tion of freight flows are presented for six different esti-mation groups. Experiences collected from the ERG approach applied to three different project areas in Sweden are presented. The three pro-jects comprise (1) the original ERG project in the county of Värmland, (2) an input-output study from the county of Blekinge, and (3) an investigation of the goods flow pattern of the Mälardalen region.

The results are evaluated by several measures. Sixteen measures of dis-tance and simi-larity are defined, and the properties of the measures are dis-cussed and compa-red. By utilizing these measures, the deviation between one observed reference distribution of flows and one corresponding estimated distribution are calculated. However, different methods of measure-ment or meas-ures might give very different results and, hence, diverging conclusions about pre-cision and accuracy. The reason for this is mainly due to three factors: (i) the func-tional form of the deviation measure, (ii) the character of the distributions com-pared, and (iii) the unit of meas-urement. This is demonstrated mainly through analyses based on empirical data which comprise comparisons bet-ween differentially established regio-nal input-output coefficients as well as between the internodal commodity flows estimates.

One important conclusion of the study is that generally available statistics are in most cases too highly aggregated to give an accurate picture of regional flow pat-terns and are thus not applicable to the estimation process. It is therefore necessary to add disaggregated, plant level information. From the measurement study one can, for example, conclude that the regression technique is very useful in this con-text. It gives several measures of deviation, and its plotting facility serves as a good illustra-tion and disclosure tool.



Keywords: Input-output models, interregional models, gravity models, entropy models, minimum information models, trade flows, freight flows, commodity flows, spatial, measures of similarity, measures of deviation

Syftet med föreliggande rapport är att beskriva och utvärdera metoder och modeller som empiriskt kan användas vid estimation av inom- och mellanregionala godsflöden. Särskilt har användbarheten hos periodiskt publicerad statistik undersökts.

Beroende på olika varutypskarakteristika redovisas modeller för generering och fördelning avgodsflöden för sex olika estimationsgrupper: I. Industrivaror. II. Areella varor (rundvirke), III. Grus och sand, IV. Oljeprodukter, V. Dagligvaror samt VI. Transitvaror.

De viktigaste modelltyperna som kommit till användning är input-outputmodeller, entropimodeller och linjärprogrammeringsmodeller.

En viktig slutsats är att allmänt tillgänglig statistik oftast är alltför gemomsnittsbetonad för att estimationerna skall kunna ge en verklighetstrogen bild av godsflödesmönstren. Det är därför nödvändigt att via enkäter eller på annat sätt tillföra disaggregerad, anläggningsspecifik information.



Nyckelord: Godsflödesmodeller, entropimodeller, gravitationsmodeller, fyrstegsmodellen, ERG-modeller.

Projektet Godstransporter och logistik -Jönköpings län som exempel kan ses som ett led i en regional kunskapsuppbyggnad till gagn för beslut som gäller underhåll och investeringar i transport- och distributionsnät. Den enkätundersökning som ligger till grund för utredningen belyser: 1. Företagens syn på länets transportsystem. 2. Leverans- och produktionsförhållanden. 3. Miljöhänsyn vid val av transportmedel.

Företagen syn på transportsystemet är huvudsakligen positiv då det gäller vägnät och lastbilstransporter men mycket negativ vad gäller järnvägstransporter. Företagen har vidare uppfattningen att genomsnittlig leveranstid är mycket längre och variation i leveranstid är lägre för vägtransporter än för järnvägstransporter. Risken för förlust eller skador upplevs vara lägre för lastbils- än för järnvägstransporterat gods. Lyhördheten inför kundkrav upplevs som mycket lägre då det gäller järnvägstransporter. Resultaten redovisas också branschvis, efter företagens storleksklass samt efter kommun. Den mest positiva synen på lastbilstransporter återfinns t.ex. hos företag belägna inom Värnamo, Vaggeryds, Sävsjö och Jönköpings kommuner.

Vad gäller leverans- och produktionsförhållanden - karakteriserade i form av variablerna sändningsstorlek, sändningsfrekvens, leveranstid, lagerhållning samt bearbetningstid - kan bl.a. följande slutsatser redovisas: (i)Några systematiska skillnader mellan de olika branschgrupperna finns ej. (ii) En stor andel av de större företagen säger sig ha fått minskade leveranstider, minskad lagerhållningen samt minskad bearbetningstid. (iii) Ca två tredjedelar av alla leveranser utgörs av direktleveranser. (iv) Störst inköp av speditionstjänster har skogsindustrin, maskin-industrin och möbelindustrin. (v) Upp till en viss gräns råder ett starkt samband mellan arbetsställets storleksklass och omfattningen av inköpta speditionstjänster. (vi) De geografiska skillnaderna i omfattning av speditionsinköp är betydande. Aneby, Vetlanda, Tranås och Sävsjö kommuner ligger över länsgenomsnittet medan Gnosjö, Eksjö och Vaggeryds kommuner ligger under.

En mycket stor andel av företagen tror att miljöhänsyn kommer att vara viktiga i framtiden då man väljer transportmedel. Det är främst kundens krav på miljövänliga transporter, transportörens förmåga till miljöanpassning samt fraktpriserna som kommer att vara avgörande för detta val.



Nyckelord: Lastbilstransporter, järnvägstransporter, leveranstid, godsskador, lagerhållning, bearbetningstid.

Basen för modellutläggning av godsflöden på infrastrukturnäten är alltid s.k. OD-matriser. OD-matrisernas stabilitet över tiden är avgörande för hur dessa skall estimeras. Projektets syfte är att genom en jämförelse mellan 1985 års och 1999 års godsflödesdata för Värmland undersöka i vilken utsträckning godsflödesmönster förändras över tiden.

Under den undersökta tiden har stora förändringar skett i det värmländska näringslivet. Antalet förvärvsarbetande i de åtta undersökta sektorerna har minskat med 27%. Produktionsvärdet i har samtidigt ökat med 19% medan producerad vikt är oförändrad. Lastbilens andel av transporterad godsmängd har ökat från 70% till 86%. Detta kan ha haft betydelse för jämförelsen av de två årens godstransportmönstrens, då enbart det lastbilstransporterade godset som ingår i undersökningen.

De slutsatser av jämförelsen som kan dras är att de två godstransportmönstren i stor utsträckning avviker från varandra. Korrelationen mellan dem är mycket svagt positiv och för en sektor t.o.m. negativ. I de fall korrelationen är högre för någon sektor, domineras beräkningen i hög utsträckning av endast en OD-relation. Skall godstransportundersökningar uppdateras med hjälp av modeller som utnyttjar tidigare transportmönster bör detta förmodligen ske efter halva den tid som gått mellan de två värmländska godstransport-utredningarna, dvs. efter 5-8 år. I annat fall måste en omfattande enkätundersökning genomföras på nytt.

En attraktiv ekonomisk miljö är en förutsättning för regional tillväxt. Till en sådan miljö hör bl.a. väl utbyggd infrastruktur och goda kommunikationer. Detta skapar låga geografiska transaktionskostnader vilket i sin tur stärker en regions konkurrens gentemot andra regioner med sämre förutsättningar.



I föreliggande utredning undersöks hur förkortade restider leder till ökad tillgänglighet - till befolkning, arbetstillfällen och arbetskraft och därmed till ökad ekonomisk aktivitet i Värmlands län. Hypotesen, som de använda modellerna bygger på, är att ökad tillgänglighet på sikt leder till ökad sysselsättning och ökat antal näringsgrenar i den berörda regionen. Även in- och utpendling sätts i relation till tillgänglighetsmått av olika slag. Genom att dessa samband formulerats matematiskt är det möjligt att beräkna effekterna, på sysselsättning, antal näringsgrenar och pendling, av åtgärder som påverkar restiderna. I utredningen har effekterna av fyra olika vägprojekt samt två kollektivtrafikprojekt undersökts. Vägprojekten omfattar två riksvägar, länstrafikplanen för vägar samt en framtidsplan med sikte på år 2025. Kollektivtrafikprojekten omfattar dels två expressbussförbindelser, dels utbyggnad av en järnvägsförbindelse (Vålbergsrakan).



För att kunna studera effekterna av de utvalda projekten har först den historiska utvecklingen av folkmängd, sysselsättning, pendling etc. beskrivits. Därefter har de relevanta tillgänglighetsmåtten beräknats dels för utgångsåret, dvs. före resp. projekts genomförande, dels efter genomförandet. Differensen mellan de av modellerna predicerade, dvs. förutsagda, före- och efter-värdena för sysselsättning, antal näringsgrenar och pendling - baserade på dessa tillgänglighetstal - utgör effekten av resp. projekt.



I utredningen dras bl.a. följande slutsatser: (i) De i verkligheten planerade väginvesteringarna ger mycket små restidsvinster. (ii) Berörda kommuner är i de flest fall små vilket medför att deras tillgänglighet påverkas mycket lite, vilket i sin tur leder till små förändringar av sysselsättning, antal branscher och pendling. (iii) Någon nämnvärd regionförstoring kommer därför inte till stånd, vilket kan motverka en tillgänglighetsbaserad ekonomisk tillväxt. (iv) Först vid större vägsatsningar, typ motorvägsbyggen, som berör befolkningsmässigt sett stora kommuner och som ger avsevärt större tidsvinster, skulle effekterna kunna vara betydande. För Värmlands del erhålls därför störst effekt om dessa satsningar förläggs till Karlstadsregionen. Förbättrad kollektivtrafik, som t.ex. projektet Vålbergsrakan, kan i många fall ge stora restidsvinster och därmed effekter som vida överstiger effekterna av väginvesteringar. (v) Infrastrukturens betydelse för godstransporterna kommer i skymundan i de använda tillgänglighetsmodellerna. Detta får särskilt stor betydelse för ett skogslän som Värmland med en stor andel tunga transporter. (vi) En väl fungerande transportinfrastruktur är ett nödvändigt men inte tillräckligt villkor för regional utveckling.

Regionerna kommer enligt många iakttagare att få en allt större betydelse i ett framtida integrerat Europa. Projektet Regional input-outputmodell för Jönköpings syftar till att med hjälp av input-outputteknik ge kunskap om de sektoriella flödena inom den regional ekonomi i Jönköpings län. Med hjälp av den framtagna analysmodellen skall de regionalekonomiska effekterna av en förändrad struktur och aktivitetsnivå i näringslivet kunna beskrivas.

I rapporten beskrivs de allmänna principerna för input-outputmodellering. Bl.a. noteras att i en regional input-outputmodell visar varje koefficient endast leveranserna från den egna regionen. Detta kräver att de regionala självförsörjningsgraderna för de olika branscherna kan bestämmas på ett tillförlitligt sätt. I rapporten redovisas två sätt. Det ena bygger på lokaliseringskvoter baserade på sekundärdata, det andra på insamlade enkätdata. I utredningen testas också två nya metoder att bestämma självförsörjningskvoter.

En initial efterfrågeförändring förmeras när den fortplantar sig genom ekonomin till ett slutligen betydligt högre värde. Hur mycket högre beror på storleken av branschens multiplikator. Multiplikatorn, som finns i två olika former - typ I ocu typ II - är således ett viktigt begrepp här. För Jönköpings län har sysselsättnings och produktionsmultiplikatorer beräknats för 28 sektorer. För typ I varierar produktionsmultiplikatorns storlek mellan 1,10 (Järn- och stålindustri )och 1,79 (Skyddad livsmedelsindustri). Järn- och stålindustrin har också lägst multiplikator av typ II medan Grafisk industri har det högsta värdet, 2,25. En förändrad efterfrågan riktad mot Järn- och stålindustrin får således betydligt mindre effekt på länets ekonomi än en lika stor efterfrågeförändring riktad mot Grafisk industri.



Nyckelord: Input-output, regional input- outputmodell, multiplikator.

Nedläggning och nyetablering av företag medför både kort och långsiktiga förändringar i den regionala ekonomin. De långsiktiga effekterna kan estimeras med hjälp av regionala multiplikatorer.

Projektets syfte är att dels utveckla en regional input-outputmodell för Värmlands län, dels med hjälp av den framtagna modellen beräkna regionala multiplikatorer för länet.

Med hjälp av data från en tidigare genomförd godstransportutredning och de nationella input-outputtabellerna har en regional input-outputmatris framställts. Denna har sedan använts för att beräkna regionala output(produktions)- och sysselsättningsmultiplikatorer för länet.

Outputmultiplikatorns storlek varierar mellan 1,08 (Skogsbruk) och 1,73 (Grafisk industri). Skogsbruket har också lägst sysselsättningsmultiplikator (1,14) medan Bostadsförvaltning har den högsta (3,45). Av utredningen framgår att den för Värmland viktiga Massa- och pappersindustrin har bland de högsta värdena för båda multiplikatorerna (1,65 resp. 2,28). Utvecklingen av länets produktion och sysselsättning inom denna sektor får således förhållandevis stora effekter för den regionala ekonomin.