Affective forecasting in public transport was investigated in 2 studies. Study 1 revealed differences in satisfaction between users (n = 870) and non-users (n = 137). Users were more satisfied than were non-users with regard to reliability and safety, as well as with regard to overall satisfaction. It was also found that non-users mispredicted their satisfaction with public transport. Study 2 revealed that habitual car users (n = 106) reported greater satisfaction after using public transport for 1 month than they had predicted initially, which provided additional support for the hypothesis that habitual car users would mispredict their satisfaction with public transport. Satisfaction with public transport also increased in comparison with a random sample of car users (n = 63).

The present study examines the hypothesis that car users’ affective forecasts of satisfaction with public transport are biased by a focusing illusion. In Study 1, 54 car users with a stated intent to change travel mode read descriptions of a positive, a negative or a neutral critical incident. They were asked to predict their satisfaction with public transport if the incident occurred. In Study 2, 38 car users with no stated intent to change travel mode read descriptions of a positive or a negative critical incident. They were asked to predict their satisfaction with the service if the incident occurred. The results from Studies 1 and 2 showed that focus on a negative critical incident significantly generated lower predicted satisfaction. Thus, the study show that predicted satisfaction is altered when car users focus on negative critical incidents.

A longitudinal field study investigated the role of predicted, on-line experienced and remembered satisfaction in the current use of public transport. Sixty-two car users voluntarily travelled by public transport for a period of one month and ratings of predicted, on-line experienced and remembered satisfaction were collected. The results showed that remembered satisfaction with public transport was significantly lower than on-line experienced satisfaction. Furthermore, overall remembered satisfaction accounted for current public transport use, whereas on-line experienced satisfaction did not. Results suggest that recollection of satisfaction with public transport is negatively biased. This bias affects current choice to travel by public transport.

Car users underestimate their potential satisfaction with public transport due to a focusing illusion (i.e., focusing on a too narrow range of aspects related to the focal event). To investigate whether a defocusing technique would increase car users’ predicted satisfaction with public transport, the effects of defocusing techniques, generic (Study 1) and self-relevant (Study 2), were investigated. In Study 1 (estimate daily time spent on ten pre-selected activities), the generic defocusing technique did not generate higher predicted satisfaction with public transport. In Study 2, the self-relevant defocusing technique generated higher predicted satisfaction on quality attributes, namely satisfaction with the number of departures, the number of available seats and the condition of the vehicles, in comparison with controls. It is concluded that the self-relevant defocusing technique applied in Study 2 (state your various everyday activities and describe how much time you engage in them) was successful in making car users take into account activities in life that will remain unchanged if they were to use public transport for their daily travel. Additionally, in Studies 1 and 2, it was found that car-use habit, regardless of the experimental condition, influenced the magnitude of predicted satisfaction, that is, the higher the car-use habit, the lower the predicted satisfaction with public transport.