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Estimated time of arrival and debiasing the time saving bias
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
Stockholm University.
Karlstad University, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences (starting 2013), Department of Social and Psychological Studies.
2015 (English)In: Ergonomics, ISSN 0014-0139, E-ISSN 1366-5847, no 12, 1939-1946 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [sv]

The time saving bias predicts that the time saved when increasing speed from a high speed is overestimated, and underestimated when increasing speed from a slow speed. In a questionnaire, time saving judgements were investigated when information of estimated time to arrival was provided. In an active driving task, an alternative meter indicating the inverted speed was used to debias judgements. The simulated task was to first drive a distance at a given speed, and then drive the same distance again at the speed the driver judged was required to gain exactly 3 min in travel time compared with the first drive. A control group performed the same task with a speedometer and saved less than the targeted 3 min when increasing speed from a high speed, and more than 3 min when increasing from a low speed. Participants in the alternative meter condition were closer to the target. The two studies corroborate a time saving bias and show that biased intuitive judgements can be debiased by displaying the inverted speed.

Practitioner Summary: Previous studies have shown a cognitive bias in judgements of the time saved by increasing speed. This simulator study aims to improve driver judgements by introducing a speedometer indicating the inverted speed in active driving. The results show that the bias can be reduced by presenting the inverted speed and this finding can be used when designing in-car information systems.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2015. no 12, 1939-1946 p.
Keyword [en]
time saving bias, debiasing, inverted speed, estimated time of arrival, heuristic
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Research subject
URN: urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-38149DOI: 10.1080/00140139.2015.1051592ISI: 000367014100002PubMedID: 26230872OAI: diva2:859967
Available from: 2015-10-09 Created: 2015-10-09 Last updated: 2016-03-08Bibliographically approved

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