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Assessing Methods to Estimate Delivery Flows and the ERG Model
1995 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The purpose of this study is to describe and evaluate methods and models which are empirically applicable in order to estimate flows of interaction between sectors and between nodes. This interaction manifests itself in the form of flows of com-modities and services between the different sectors of the economy, and between spatially dis-persed nodes of supply and demand. After an introductory overview of vari-ous regio-nal and interregional interaction models, the main ideas of the ERG (Estimation of Intraregional and Interregional Goods Flows) approach are de-scribed. A specific purpose of the ERG project was to investigate to what extent it is possible to "feed" the models by using statistics published periodically. Depending on different kinds of commodity characteristics, mod-els of generation and distri-bu-tion of freight flows are presented for six different esti-mation groups. Experiences collected from the ERG approach applied to three different project areas in Sweden are presented. The three pro-jects comprise (1) the original ERG project in the county of Värmland, (2) an input-output study from the county of Blekinge, and (3) an investigation of the goods flow pattern of the Mälardalen region.

The results are evaluated by several measures. Sixteen measures of dis-tance and simi-larity are defined, and the properties of the measures are dis-cussed and compa-red. By utilizing these measures, the deviation between one observed reference distribution of flows and one corresponding estimated distribution are calculated. However, different methods of measure-ment or meas-ures might give very different results and, hence, diverging conclusions about pre-cision and accuracy. The reason for this is mainly due to three factors: (i) the func-tional form of the deviation measure, (ii) the character of the distributions com-pared, and (iii) the unit of meas-urement. This is demonstrated mainly through analyses based on empirical data which comprise comparisons bet-ween differentially established regio-nal input-output coefficients as well as between the internodal commodity flows estimates.

One important conclusion of the study is that generally available statistics are in most cases too highly aggregated to give an accurate picture of regional flow pat-terns and are thus not applicable to the estimation process. It is therefore necessary to add disaggregated, plant level information. From the measurement study one can, for example, conclude that the regression technique is very useful in this con-text. It gives several measures of deviation, and its plotting facility serves as a good illustra-tion and disclosure tool.



Keywords: Input-output models, interregional models, gravity models, entropy models, minimum information models, trade flows, freight flows, commodity flows, spatial, measures of similarity, measures of deviation

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
1995.
Series
KTH, Doktorsavhandling
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-17070OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kau-17070DiVA, id: diva2:590671
Available from: 2013-01-21 Created: 2013-01-21 Last updated: 2013-01-21

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CiteExportLink to record
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  • apa
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