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Supply projections for dentists, Thailand (2000-2030).
Department of Community Dentistry, Mahidol University.
Department of Community Dentistry, Mahidol University.
2000 (English)In: Human Resource for Health Development Journal, Vol. 4, no 2, 94-105 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Abstract In the1970s, dental manpower in Thailand was found to be in short supply. In responseto this shortage, both the Ministry of University Affairs (MoUA) and the Office of NationalEducation Council (ONEC) proposed production plans to expand the supply of dentists. As aconsequence, the production of dentists has been increasing dramatically over the past 20 years.Experience from many countries has shown that such a rapid expansion of supply for dentists, ifnot periodically evaluated, could lead to a state of oversupply. This paper projects the supply of dentists in Thailand for the next 30 years, using theproposed first year enrollment plans of MoUA and ONEC, in order to compare future supplywith the projected requirements. WHO models for projecting workforce supply andrequirements and cohort retention rate method were used in this study. The student dropout rateused in this study was found to be approximately 2%, equal to the one used in MoUA plan.Estimated quinquennial retention rates for the dental workforce declined from 99% to 75% overthe first 34 years following completion of training, with a maximum working life of 50 years. The supply projections for dentists under the production plans of MoUA and the ONECshow that the population per dentist will decrease from 10,350 in the year 2000 to 6,072 and to3,082 in 2030. The MoUA production plan projects a supply similar to the projectedrequirement in the next 15 years but the ONEC production plan projects an oversupply state.The current economic crisis of the country coupled with health care reform, support anincreased emphasis of preventive care, which can be effectively rendered by dental nurses.Future production planning, therefore, should take into consideration the future use of auxiliarypersonnel and changes in dental health care provision.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2000. Vol. 4, no 2, 94-105 p.
Keyword [en]
dental workforce, supply projection for dentists, dentist requirement projection, cohort retention rate, dental student drop out rate, population per dentist
National Category
Health Care Service and Management, Health Policy and Services and Health Economy
Research subject
Public Health Care Administration
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-11849OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kau-11849DiVA: diva2:506101
Available from: 2012-02-27 Created: 2012-02-27 Last updated: 2012-03-06Bibliographically approved

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http://www.who.int/hrh/en/HRDJ_4_2_05.pdf
Health Care Service and Management, Health Policy and Services and Health Economy

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
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Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
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