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Truth claims and explanatory claims: An ontological typology of futures studies
Karlstad University, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Communication and IT, Department of Working Life Science.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5967-7970
Karlstad University, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Communication and IT, Department of Working Life Science.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5473-7417
Karlstad University, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Communication and IT, Department of Working Life Science.
2010 (English)In: Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies, ISSN 0016-3287, E-ISSN 1873-6378, Vol. 42, no 8, 857-865 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Classifications of futures research are usually based on epistemological differences, but we complete these with ontological considerations. The article presents a typology of forecasts, i.e. statements on future events or states. It has two dimensions, truth claim and explanatory claim; each dimension has two values, making the claim or not making the claim. The four outcomes are then: Forecasts which make both truth claims and explanatory claims (predictions); which make truth claims, but not explanatory claims (prognoses); which make explanatory claims, but not truth claims (science fiction); and which make neither truth claims nor explanatory claims (utopias or dystopias). We regard each outcome as an ideal type, against which forecasts can be measured. We illustrate the use of the typology by presenting an example of each outcome

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2010. Vol. 42, no 8, 857-865 p.
Keyword [en]
Forecast, prediction, prognosis, science fiction, utopia
National Category
Work Sciences
Research subject
Working Life Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-10040DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2010.02.003ISI: 000282072200009OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kau-10040DiVA: diva2:493557
Available from: 2012-02-08 Created: 2012-02-08 Last updated: 2017-03-24Bibliographically approved

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Bergman, AnnKarlsson, Jan ChAxelsson, Jonas
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