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Practitioner-Friendly Introduction to Bayesian Flood Frequency Analyses
Karlstad University, Faculty of Health, Science and Technology (starting 2013), Department of Environmental and Life Sciences (from 2013).ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8630-2875
United States Forest Service Region 1, 949 US Hwy 93 N., Eureka, MT, 59917, USA.
2024 (English)In: Advances in Hydraulic Research / [ed] Monika B. Kalinowska; Magdalena M. Mrokowska; Paweł M. Rowiński, Springer Science+Business Media B.V., 2024, Vol. Part F2923, p. 183-194Chapter in book (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Flood frequency analyses are an effective means to describe flood magnitudes and recurrence probabilities for monitored rivers. In data-limited situations, predictions become uncertain and of limited use for management. Bayesian approaches provide a formal way to bring in domain knowledge (as “priors”), which can help in data-limited scenarios. While the application of Bayesian estimation techniques to flood frequency is not unique, our presentation of a Bayesian workflow is. We provide a case study of using both historical and contemporary discharge monitoring information for the longest river in Sweden, the Klarälven. Our workflow includes 5 steps for applying Bayesian techniques for flood frequency analyses, (1) specifying priors for each parameter, (2) sampling from the prior predictive distribution, (3) fitting candidate distributions to data, (4) performing posterior predictive checks for each distribution, and (5) performing sensitivity analyses. The resulting workflow serves as proof of a concept that can be readily applied in other river systems.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Science+Business Media B.V., 2024. Vol. Part F2923, p. 183-194
Series
GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences, ISSN 2190-5193, E-ISSN 2190-5207
Keywords [en]
Bayesian priors, Bayesian workflow, Data poor river systems, Historical data
National Category
Biological Sciences
Research subject
Biology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-101200DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-56093-4_14Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85198144187ISBN: 978-3-031-56092-7 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kau-101200DiVA, id: diva2:1885402
Available from: 2024-07-23 Created: 2024-07-23 Last updated: 2024-07-23Bibliographically approved

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Hansen, Henry

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
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  • vancouver
  • apa.csl
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  • de-DE
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Output format
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