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PV Power Production and Consumption Estimation with Uncertainty bounds in Smart Energy Grids
Karlstad University, Faculty of Health, Science and Technology (starting 2013), Department of Mathematics and Computer Science (from 2013).ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9403-6175
Karlstad University, Faculty of Health, Science and Technology (starting 2013), Department of Engineering and Physics (from 2013).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5435-0431
Karlstad University, Faculty of Health, Science and Technology (starting 2013), Department of Engineering and Physics (from 2013).ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9750-9863
Karlstad University, Faculty of Health, Science and Technology (starting 2013), Department of Mathematics and Computer Science (from 2013).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9446-8143
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2023 (English)In: 2023 IEEE International Conference on Environment and Electrical Engineering and 2023 IEEE Industrial and Commercial Power Systems Europe (EEEIC / I&CPS Europe), IEEE, 2023Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

For efficient energy exchanges in smart energy grids under the presence of renewables, predictions of energy production and consumption are required. For robust energy scheduling, prediction of uncertainty bounds of Photovoltaic (PV) power production and consumption is essential. In this paper, we apply several Machine Learning (ML) models that can predict the power generation of PV and consumption of households in a smart energy grid, while also assessing the uncertainty of their predictions by providing quantile values as uncertainty bounds. We evaluate our algorithms on a dataset from Swedish households having PV installations and battery storage. Our findings reveal that a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 16.12W for power production and 16.34W for consumption for a residential installation can be achieved with uncertainty bounds having quantile loss values below 5W. Furthermore, we show that the accuracy of the ML models can be affected by the characteristics of the household being studied. Different households may have different data distributions, which can cause prediction models to perform poorly when applied to untrained households. However, our study found that models built directly for individual homes, even when trained with smaller datasets, offer the best outcomes. This suggests that the development of personalized ML models may be a promising avenue for improving the accuracy of predictions in the future.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE, 2023.
Keywords [en]
Machine Learning, Smart Energy Grids, Uncertainty Bounds, Digital storage, Forecasting, Smart power grids, Uncertainty analysis, Energy exchanges, Energy grids, Machine learning models, Machine-learning, Photovoltaic power, Power production, Production and consumption, Smart energies, Smart energy grid
National Category
Energy Systems Energy Engineering
Research subject
Electrical Engineering; Computer Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-96594DOI: 10.1109/EEEIC/ICPSEurope57605.2023.10194894Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85168697748ISBN: 979-8-3503-4743-2 (electronic)ISBN: 979-8-3503-4744-9 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kau-96594DiVA, id: diva2:1794089
Conference
2023 IEEE International Conference on Environment and Electrical Engineering and 2023 IEEE Industrial and Commercial Power Systems Europe (EEEIC / I&CPS Europe), Madrid, Spain, 6-9 June 2023.
Funder
Swedish Energy Agency, 50246-1SOLVE, 52693-1Available from: 2023-09-04 Created: 2023-09-04 Last updated: 2024-03-13Bibliographically approved

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Aupke, PhilSeemaTheocharis, AndreasKassler, Andreas

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • apa.csl
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More styles
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  • de-DE
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  • nn-NO
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  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
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