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DA-LSTM: A dynamic drift-adaptive learning framework for interval load forecasting with LSTM networks
Karlstad University, Faculty of Health, Science and Technology (starting 2013), Department of Mathematics and Computer Science (from 2013).ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0683-2783
Karlstad University, Faculty of Health, Science and Technology (starting 2013), Department of Mathematics and Computer Science (from 2013).ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9403-6175
Karlstad University, Faculty of Health, Science and Technology (starting 2013), Department of Mathematics and Computer Science (from 2013).ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9051-7609
Karlstad University, Faculty of Health, Science and Technology (starting 2013), Department of Mathematics and Computer Science (from 2013).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9446-8143
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2023 (English)In: Engineering applications of artificial intelligence, ISSN 0952-1976, E-ISSN 1873-6769, Vol. 123, article id 106480Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Load forecasting is a crucial topic in energy management systems (EMS) due to its vital role in optimizing energy scheduling and enabling more flexible and intelligent power grid systems. As a result, these systems allow power utility companies to respond promptly to demands in the electricity market. Deep learning (DL) models have been commonly employed in load forecasting problems supported by adaptation mechanisms to cope with the changing pattern of consumption by customers, known as concept drift. A drift magnitude threshold should be defined to design change detection methods to identify drifts. While the drift magnitude in load forecasting problems can vary significantly over time, existing literature often assumes a fixed drift magnitude threshold, which should be dynamically adjusted rather than fixed during system evolution. To address this gap, in this paper, we propose a dynamic drift-adaptive Long Short-Term Memory (DA-LSTM) framework that can improve the performance of load forecasting models without requiring a drift threshold setting. We integrate several strategies into the framework based on active and passive adaptation approaches. To evaluate DA-LSTM in real-life settings, we thoroughly analyze the proposed framework and deploy it in a real-world problem through a cloud-based environment. Efficiency is evaluated in terms of the prediction performance of each approach and computational cost. The experiments show performance improvements on multiple evaluation metrics achieved by our framework compared to baseline methods from the literature. Finally, we present a trade-off analysis between prediction performance and computational costs.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2023. Vol. 123, article id 106480
Keywords [en]
Concept drift Change-point detection Dynamic drift adaptation Adaptive LSTM Interval load forecasting
National Category
Computer Sciences
Research subject
Computer Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-95022DOI: 10.1016/j.engappai.2023.106480ISI: 001013639800001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85160615665OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kau-95022DiVA, id: diva2:1762006
Funder
Knowledge Foundation, 20200067Swedish Energy Agency, 50246-1; 52693-1Available from: 2023-06-02 Created: 2023-06-02 Last updated: 2023-07-06Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Towards Robust and Adaptive Machine Learning: A Fresh Perspective on Evaluation and Adaptation Methodologies in Non-Stationary Environments
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Towards Robust and Adaptive Machine Learning: A Fresh Perspective on Evaluation and Adaptation Methodologies in Non-Stationary Environments
2023 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Machine learning (ML) has become ubiquitous in various disciplines and applications, serving as a powerful tool for developing predictive models to analyze diverse variables of interest. With the advent of the digital era, the proliferation of data has presented numerous opportunities for growth and expansion across various domains. However, along with these opportunities, there is a unique set of challenges that arises due to the dynamic and ever-changing nature of data. These challenges include concept drift, which refers to shifting data distributions over time, and other data-related issues that can be framed as learning problems. Traditional static models are inadequate in handling these issues, underscoring the need for novel approaches to enhance the performance robustness and reliability of ML models to effectively navigate the inherent non-stationarity in the online world. The field of concept drift is characterized by several intricate aspects that challenge learning algorithms, including the analysis of model performance, which requires evaluating and understanding how the ML model's predictive capability is affected by different problem settings. Additionally, determining the magnitude of drift necessary for change detection is an indispensable task, as it involves identifying substantial shifts in data distributions. Moreover, the integration of adaptive methodologies is essential for updating ML models in response to data dynamics, enabling them to maintain their effectiveness and reliability in evolving environments. In light of the significance and complexity of the topic, this dissertation offers a fresh perspective on the performance robustness and adaptivity of ML models in non-stationary environments. The main contributions of this research include exploring and organizing the literature, analyzing the performance of ML models in the presence of different types of drift, and proposing innovative methodologies for drift detection and adaptation that solve real-world problems. By addressing these challenges, this research paves the way for the development of more robust and adaptive ML solutions capable of thriving in dynamic and evolving data landscapes.

Abstract [en]

Machine learning (ML) is widely used in various disciplines as a powerful tool for developing predictive models to analyze diverse variables. In the digital era, the abundance of data has created growth opportunities, but it also brings challenges due to the dynamic nature of data. One of these challenges is concept drift, the shifting data distributions over time. Consequently, traditional static models are inadequate for handling these challenges in the online world. Concept drift, with its intricate aspects, presents a challenge for learning algorithms. Analyzing model performance and detecting substantial shifts in data distributions are crucial for integrating adaptive methodologies to update ML models in response to data dynamics, maintaining effectiveness and reliability in evolving environments. In this dissertation, a fresh perspective is offered on the robustness and adaptivity of ML models in non-stationary environments. This research explores and organizes existing literature, analyzes ML model performance in the presence of drift, and proposes innovative methodologies for detecting and adapting to drift in real-world problems. The aim is to develop more robust and adaptive ML solutions capable of thriving in dynamic and evolving data landscapes.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Karlstad: Karlstads universitet, 2023. p. 24
Series
Karlstad University Studies, ISSN 1403-8099 ; 2023:23
Keywords
machine learning, concept drift, covariate shift, performance robustness, evaluation methodology, adaptive learning
National Category
Computer Sciences
Research subject
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-95645 (URN)978-91-7867-390-2 (ISBN)978-91-7867-391-9 (ISBN)
Presentation
2023-10-06, Sjöström Lecture Hall, 1B309, Karlstad University, Karlstad, 09:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2023-09-15 Created: 2023-06-22 Last updated: 2023-09-15Bibliographically approved

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Bayram, FirasAupke, PhilAhmed, Bestoun S.Kassler, AndreasTheocharis, Andreas

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