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Affective Forecasting: Predicting Future Satisfaction with Public Transport
Karlstad University, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Communication and IT, Department of Psychology.
2009 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Affective forecasting refers to the process of predicting future emotions in response to future events. The overall aim of the present thesis was to investigate, by applying the framework of Affective forecasting, how car users predict their satisfaction with public transport services. Study 1, Part 1 revealed a satisfaction gap between users and non-users of public transport, whereby non-users reported lower satisfaction than users, in overall satisfaction as well as in two quality factors resulting from a factor analysis of a major survey on satisfaction with public transport. It was hypothesized that non-users were biased in their satisfaction reports, something which was subsequently investigated in Study 1, Part 2, where a field experiment revealed that car users suffer from an impact bias in their predictions about future satisfaction with public transport due to being more satisfied with the services after a trial period than they initially predicted they would. Addressing the question of whether or not a focusing illusion is the psychological mechanism responsible for the impact bias, two experiments containing critical incidents were conducted during Study 2, in order to investigate whether or not car users exaggerate the impact of specific incidents upon their future satisfaction with public transport. For car users with a stated intention to change their current travel mode, in Study 2, Part 1, as well as for car users with no stated intention to change their travel mode, in Study 2, Part 2, the negative critical incident generated lower predicted satisfaction with public transport, in support of the hypothesis that the impact bias in car users’ predictions about future satisfaction with public transport is caused by a focusing illusion.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Karlstad: Karlstad University , 2009. , p. 20
Series
Karlstad University Studies, ISSN 1403-8099 ; 2009:50
Keywords [en]
affective forecasting, predicted satisfaction, impact bias, focusing illusion, public transport
National Category
Psychology
Research subject
Psychology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-4868ISBN: 978-91-7063-273-0 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kau-4868DiVA, id: diva2:273736
Presentation
2009-12-08, 11D 121, Karlstads universitet, Karlstad, 10:15 (Norwegian)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2009-11-25 Created: 2009-10-23 Last updated: 2012-10-23Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Affective forecasting: Predicting and Experiencing Satisfaction with Public Transportation
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Affective forecasting: Predicting and Experiencing Satisfaction with Public Transportation
2011 (English)In: Journal of Applied Social Psychology, ISSN 0021-9029, E-ISSN 1559-1816, Vol. 41, no 8, p. 1926-1946Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Affective forecasting in public transport was investigated in 2 studies. Study 1 revealed differences in satisfaction between users (n = 870) and non-users (n = 137). Users were more satisfied than were non-users with regard to reliability and safety, as well as with regard to overall satisfaction. It was also found that non-users mispredicted their satisfaction with public transport. Study 2 revealed that habitual car users (n = 106) reported greater satisfaction after using public transport for 1 month than they had predicted initially, which provided additional support for the hypothesis that habitual car users would mispredict their satisfaction with public transport. Satisfaction with public transport also increased in comparison with a random sample of car users (n = 63).

National Category
Psychology
Research subject
Psychology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-4967 (URN)10.1111/j.1559-1816.2011.00789.x (DOI)000293909100005 ()
Available from: 2009-11-25 Created: 2009-11-25 Last updated: 2017-12-12Bibliographically approved
2. Effects of Critical Incidents on Car Users' Predicted Satisfaction with Public Transport
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Effects of Critical Incidents on Car Users' Predicted Satisfaction with Public Transport
2011 (English)In: Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, ISSN 1369-8478, E-ISSN 1873-5517, p. 138-146Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The present study examines the hypothesis that car users’ affective forecasts of satisfaction with public transport are biased by a focusing illusion. In Study 1, 54 car users with a stated intent to change travel mode read descriptions of a positive, a negative or a neutral critical incident. They were asked to predict their satisfaction with public transport if the incident occurred. In Study 2, 38 car users with no stated intent to change travel mode read descriptions of a positive or a negative critical incident. They were asked to predict their satisfaction with the service if the incident occurred. The results from Studies 1 and 2 showed that focus on a negative critical incident significantly generated lower predicted satisfaction. Thus, the study show that predicted satisfaction is altered when car users focus on negative critical incidents.

National Category
Psychology
Research subject
Psychology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-4968 (URN)10.1016/j.trf.2010.11.005 (DOI)000288637300006 ()
Available from: 2009-11-25 Created: 2009-11-25 Last updated: 2017-12-12Bibliographically approved

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Pedersen, Tore

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
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More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
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  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
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